The Future for Home Prices

Americans still see real estate as their best shot at wealth. It may be wishful thinking.
Over the past few years, Americans have had a brutal lesson in the risks of real estate.
Many Americans still see real estate as their best shot at wealth. In survey after survey, people expect prices to bounce back -- in some cases, as soon as six months from now.

Down the Road
And longer term? Over the next 10 to 20 years, housing economists expect prices will rise again -- but, on average, probably not nearly as much as they've averaged over the past decade. That isn't to say that some places won't experience booms (and busts). But, the experts say, you should generally expect house prices to rise just a bit more than inflation and roughly in line with household income.

Karl Case, an economics professor at Wellesley College whose name adorns the S&P Case-Shiller home-price indexes, has studied U.S. house prices going back to the 1890s. Over the long run, he says, home prices tend to increase on average at an inflation-adjusted rate of 2.5% to 3% a year, about the same as per capita income. He thinks that long-run pattern is likely to continue, despite the recent choppiness.

Other experts make similarly modest predictions. William Wheaton, a professor of economics and real estate at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, says he expects house prices to increase at a rate roughly one percentage point higher than inflation over the long term. Celia Chen, director of housing economics at Moody's Economy.com, a research firm, expects house prices to increase an average of around 4% a year over the next couple of decades.

Some experts say it's a bad idea to count on your home rising in value at all. People should think of their own homes mainly as places to live, not as investments, advises Kenneth Rosen, chairman of the Fisher Center for Real Estate at the University of California, Berkeley. Sure, home mortgages provide tax benefits, and most homes appreciate in value over the long run, he says, but there is always risk.

For all of those forecasts, many Americans are undaunted. Consider three surveys, all from October.

In a poll of 2,000 adults, real-estate-data provider Zillow.com found that 61% believed the value of their home would either remain level or rise over the next six months. Another survey of more than 1,000 homeowners, sponsored by real-estate-services firm Realogy Corp., found that 91% thought that owning a home was the best long-term investment they could make. And an online survey of 5,000 people commissioned by Citigroup found that just 32% believed it was a good time to invest in stocks -- but 51% said it was a good time to buy a home.
Source: wsj.com

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Fiddler's Creek Naples FL - Closed Sale Report

Fiddler's Creek November 2008 Statistics
330 - Active
5 - Pending
1 - Closed
Source: SunshineMLS, Inc.

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Florida Association of Realtors report indicates home sales up in third quarter

According to the latest housing statistics from the Florida Association of Realtors, sales of existing single-family homes in Florida rose 5 percent in third quarter 2008 compared to the same period last year. A total of 33,203 existing homes sold statewide in the third quarter this year; during the same period last year, 31,558 existing homes sold statewide.
FAR reports the statewide existinghome median sales price was $185,400 in the third quarter; a year ago, it was $233,200 for a decrease of 20 percent. In 2003, the third-quarter statewide median sales price was $163,700, which reflects an increase of about 13.3 percent over the five-year period. The median is a typical market price where half the homes sold for more, half for less.
To gain insight into Florida's real estate industry trends, the University of Florida's Bergstrom Center for Real Estate Studies conducts a quarterly survey of industry executives, market research economists, real estate scholars and other experts. Based on the third quarter 2008 survey, the investment outlook for various types of properties remains steady.
"People who have responded to our surveys have not lost their faith in Florida as a place to be and a place to invest," Wayne Archer, director of the center, said. "We have 40 pages of comments… and although the dominant theme is the disruption of financing, perhaps the second theme, as one person put it, is people being on the sidelines with full pads and helmets just waiting to jump back in."
Source: Florida Weekly

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Fiddler's Creek Naples FL - Closed Sale Report

Fiddler's Creek October 2008 Statistics
308 - Active
1 - Pending
1 - Closed
Source: SunshineMLS, Inc.

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Home sales increase again in Naples

The buyers are still out in Naples.

In September, home sales activity increased again for local Realtors.

Pending sales — sales that have yet to close — grew 106 percent, while overall home sales grew 50 percent, according to a monthly report by the Naples Area Board of Realtors.

The report shows sales made through the SunshineMLS, or multiple listing service, in Collier County, excluding Marco Island. There were 361 total sales in September, up from 240 a year ago. Meanwhile, pending sales grew to 481, from 234 last year.

Pending sales are up in all six geographic areas that NABOR tracks, from Naples Beach to Immokalee. The biggest jump was seen in Central Naples, where they grew nearly 244 percent to 110, up from 32 last year.

The highest number of sales was in North Naples — at 104.

Pending sales have been up the last eight months over last year, according to NABOR’s report. Sales have been up for nearly that long.

There were 92 sales made in the $500,000 to more than $2 million categories, up from 75 a year ago.
Source: Naplesnews.com

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Fiddler's Creek Closed Sale Report - September, 2008

Fiddler's Creek August 2008 Statistics
289 - Active
3 - Closed
Source: SunshineMLS, Inc.

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Money Magazine Ranks Collier County as one of the best places for long life

NAPLES — Money Magazine has ranked Collier County fourth on its "Best Places for a Long Life" list.
The magazine studied regions across the country. The highest rankings identify areas where residents have some of the highest life expectancies.
In its report, Money stated that Collier County "is the picture of Florida leisure. By land area, Collier is the largest county in the state and 80 percent of it is devoted to parks and nature preserves. Any kind of water-related recreation or exercise you can think of is readily available."
The magazine also recognized the area's many arts and entertainment offerings.
"Our ranking among the 'Best Places' confirms what we are working to develop in Southwest Florida, which is a robust business climate for growing technology, life science and corporate headquarter enterprises. Couple this with a warm, natural climate and a well-educated workforce and you have the formula for business success,” said Julie A. Schmelzle, chairman of the Economic Development Council of Collier County, in a news release.
Source: Naplesnews.com

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Fiddler's Creek Closed Sale Report - August, 2008

Fiddler's Creek August 2008 Statistics
289 - Active
4 - Pending
7 - Closed

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Source: SunshineMLS, Inc.

Florida Real Estate - Existing Home Sales Remain Level in July 2008

Single-family existing home sales rose in Florida for the first time in more than two years: While only six more homes sold in July 2008 than in July 2007, it could indicate stabilization in Florida’s housing sector, according to the latest housing statistics released by the Florida Association of Realtors(R) (FAR).
Source: RISMEDIA, August 27, 2008

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